Random Musings

 

..... solution to the pandemic #coronavirus.

‘Coronavirus is the black swan of 2020,’ warns Sequoia Capital As of March 11, 2020 Coronavirus cases, which now exceed 100,000, have been  confirmed in almost every country  in the world. Most fatalities have been in China, where it’s now killed more than 3,000 people, with South Korea, Italy, and Iran the next hardest-hit. While some companies  might benefit  economically from the outbreaks, major international companies have suffered supply chain interruptions under the weight of global coronavirus outbreaks, particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. Raw material shortages and extended factory closures have exacerbated those interruptions, with US ports  reportedly  expecting up to 20% less in cargo volumes as a result. Source: 

The day internet is turned off....

Another true Black Swan event.

Now am a witness of two Black Swan events since this blog started.... - 2008 Financial Crisis - 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil spill What is a Black Swan Event ... " This was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain 1) the disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, and technology, and 2) the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the role of the rare event." Or in more simpler terms an extreme outlier whose probability of happening is very very rare but when it does its impact is so huge that its pretty much shake's out the system and the assumptions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory